Changing tides: President Trump and CANZUK
The re-election of Donald Trump marks a decisive shift toward American isolationism, reinforcing a commitment to “America First” policies that prioritise domestic interests over multilateral engagements. Trump’s agenda builds on a longstanding scepticism toward foreign alliances, international trade agreements, and extensive global interventions. His re-election suggests an even deeper focus on reducing America’s international role, potentially fostering a more fragmented, multipolar world as the US continues to step back from traditional leadership responsibilities.
American isolationism has deep historical roots, supported by geographic advantages, resource abundance, and a large internal market, which has allowed the US to rely less on foreign alliances. This inward focus was seen during Herbert Hoover’s presidency (1929–1933), when protectionist policies like the Smoot-Hawley Tariff restricted foreign trade to safeguard American industries but ultimately worsened the global depression. Similarly, Franklin D. Roosevelt’s Neutrality Acts in the 1930s formalised a policy of detachment from foreign conflicts, illustrating the persistent appeal of isolationism in US policy. While Roosevelt later shifted towards interventionism, isolationism has remained a strong influence, re-emerging prominently in Trump’s “America First” approach.
Trump’s re-election reinforces these isolationist tendencies, prioritising economic nationalism and reducing commitments abroad to benefit domestic interests. In his first term, the US withdrew from major international agreements, imposed tariffs, and renegotiated trade deals focused on direct American gains. This inward focus is likely to intensify as the US continues to withdraw from multilateral frameworks and global security arrangements, creating a more fragmented global order.
This shift is challenging for traditional allies, especially the CANZUK nations—Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and the UK—which have historically aligned their foreign policies with US objectives, benefiting from American-led security guarantees and “free-riding” on US defence spending. Trump’s re-election complicates this arrangement, as his administration’s inward turn leaves CANZUK nations exposed to risks they have traditionally relied on the US to manage.
US unilateralism in decision-making has often left CANZUK nations in awkward positions, as Washington’s abrupt policy shifts have increasingly diverged from allied interests. A prime example of this was the Trump administration’s withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or JCPOA) in 2018. The deal, negotiated by the Obama administration alongside key European allies, was designed to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons in exchange for relief from economic sanctions. Trump’s unilateral withdrawal left Western partners—particularly the UK, France, and Germany—in a difficult position: they could either align with the new US sanctions policy, which they disagreed with, or continue supporting a now-defunct deal, risking economic penalties from Washington. Ultimately, most allies found themselves reluctantly accommodating US policy, which strained their relationships with Iran and damaged trust in multilateral agreements, highlighting the challenges of dependence on an unpredictable US partner.
Even during the Biden administration, which showed a stronger commitment to multilateral alliances, economic policies largely echoed Trump’s “America First” approach. Biden’s focus on boosting American manufacturing, incentivising domestic production, and prioritising US companies in public contracts reinforced a protectionist stance that often clashed with allied trade interests. While Biden’s multilateral rhetoric created a semblance of stability, his administration’s industrial policies revealed a continuity in prioritising US interests, complicating matters for trade-reliant allies like CANZUK.
Trump’s re-election now amplifies these shifts, introducing uncertainty into key areas of US foreign policy, particularly in Ukraine and the Indo-Pacific. Unlike the Biden administration, which actively supported Ukraine’s defence against Russian aggression and promoted a rules-based Indo-Pacific strategy to counter China, Trump has shown scepticism toward NATO’s relevance and frequently questioned the value of alliances unless they yield immediate benefits for the US. This transactional approach casts doubt over continued US support for Ukraine and raises questions about America’s commitment to containing China’s influence in the Indo-Pacific.
Trump’s trade policies also place added pressure on US allies, particularly in the Indo-Pacific. By limiting foreign access to the US market through tariffs and restrictive trade policies, Trump risks pushing Indo-Pacific nations—many of whom rely on American trade—toward China. While China’s internal consumption outlook is somewhat uncertain, these nations may have few alternatives, making them more susceptible to Chinese influence as US market access declines.
Canada has felt the effects of these shifts acutely. Trump’s tariffs and confrontational rhetoric toward Canada, once seen as America’s closest ally, have driven significant political support for CANZUK within Canada, where many leaders and citizens are increasingly open to deeper collaboration with Australia, New Zealand, and the UK. This support for CANZUK reflects a growing desire for economic and security partnerships less dependent on a volatile US administration.
For CANZUK nations, a stable, rules-based international system is critical for their economic well-being. Unlike the US, where trade constitutes only 27% of GDP (much of which from within North America), CANZUK nations are far more trade-dependent, with trade comprising 67% of GDP for Canada, 45% for Australia, 54% for New Zealand, and 70% for the UK. This reliance underscores a fundamental divergence in priorities, as CANZUK countries depend on open markets and secure trade routes, which contrasts with Trump’s inward-focused economic agenda.
In response, a strengthened CANZUK alliance offers a dual advantage: it would serve as America’s closest ally, capable of sharing some of the burden of maintaining the global system, encouraging the US to remain engaged. Through coordinated efforts in trade, defence, and diplomacy, CANZUK could help ease the strain on the US, acting as a stabilising partner that upholds key aspects of the international order. Meanwhile if the US chooses further disengagement, a robust CANZUK bloc would be better equipped to secure its interests independently, reducing its reliance on unpredictable US policy shifts.
A central element of CANZUK cooperation will involve enhancing naval capabilities to protect the maritime trade routes underpinning their economies. With a diminished US naval presence, CANZUK nations must assume greater responsibility for securing these routes, particularly in regions where geopolitical tensions pose risks to stability. Joint naval investments and coordinated operations will not only protect CANZUK’s economic interests but also reinforce their role as defenders of international trade norms.
Trump’s re-election thus represents a pivotal shift in the global balance of power, underscoring the need for CANZUK nations to adopt a more independent stance. While continuing military and intelligence ties with the US remains valuable, CANZUK must balance these relationships with proactive efforts to secure its own interests. Acting as a cohesive bloc, CANZUK can serve as both a stabilising force and a reliable ally to the US, supporting American interests when they align and safeguarding their own when they diverge.
As the US steps back, CANZUK nations are positioned to emerge as America’s closest and most capable ally, supporting American goals while enhancing CANZUK’s security and autonomy. Trump’s re-election thus serves as a critical turning point, prompting these nations to deepen collaboration, strengthen defence capabilities, and build a resilient alliance able to defend their interests—whether or not US engagement continues.
Connor Mason
Guest contributor